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On the development of Agent-Based Models for infrastructure evolution

机译:基于基础架构演化的基于代理的模型的开发

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摘要

Infrastructure systems for energy, water, transport, information etc. are large scale socio-technical systems that are critical for achieving a sustainable world. They were not created at the current global scale at once, but have slowly evolved from simple local systems, through many social and technical decisions. If we are to understand them and manage them sustainably, we need to capture their full diversity and adaptivity in models that respect Ashby's law of requisite variety. Models of evolving complex systems must themselves be evolving complex systems that can not be created from scratch but must be grown from simple to complex. This paper presents a socio-technical evolutionary modeling process for creating evolving, complex agent based models for understanding the evolution of large scale socio-technical systems such as infrastructures. It involves the continuous co-evolution and improvement of a social process for model specification, the technical design of a modular simulation engine, the encoding of formalized knowledge and collection of relevant facts. In the paper we introduce the process design, the requirements for guiding the evolution of the modeling process and illustrate the process for Agent Based Model development by showing a series of ever more complex models.
机译:能源,水,运输,信息等的基础设施系统是大规模的社会技术系统,对于实现可持续发展的世界至关重要。它们不是在当前的全球范围内一次创建的,而是通过许多社会和技术决策从简单的本地系统缓慢演变而来的。如果我们要理解它们并以可持续的方式对其进行管理,则需要在尊重阿什比必要变化定律的模型中充分体现它们的多样性和适应性。不断发展的复杂系统模型本身必须是不断发展的复杂系统,这些系统不能从头开始创建,而必须从简单到复杂。本文介绍了一种社会技术进化建模过程,该过程可用于创建演化的,基于复杂主体的模型,以理解大型社会技术系统(如基础设施)的发展。它涉及模型规范的社会过程的不断共同发展和改进,模块化仿真引擎的技术设计,形式化知识的编码以及相关事实的收集。在本文中,我们介绍了过程设计,指导建模过程演变的要求,并通过显示一系列更加复杂的模型来说明基于Agent的模型开发过程。

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